Construction jobs to outpace the US economy over the next decade
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Construction employment in the US is projected to grow faster than the wider labor market over the next decade, with electricians, HVAC installers, and plumbers accounting for many of the largest gains, according to an analysis of federal projections published on Oct. 27 by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
The analysis, written by NAHB economist Jing Fu and based on Bureau of Labor Statistics projections for 2025 to 2035, shows construction employment rising from about 8.27 million to 8.68 million. That increase of 410,700 jobs represents growth of 5.0%, compared with 3.5% for total US employment, which is projected to add 5.9 million jobs to reach 176.2 million.
The total economy figure marks a sharp slowdown from the previous decade, when employment grew by 10.9% between 2015 and 2025. Construction’s ability to outpace that slower overall growth reflects continuing demand for building work, and it also means homebuilders will be competing for skilled labor with a wider range of employers in the years ahead.
Specialty trades will supply most of the new construction jobs
Specialty trade contractors are expected to add 270,600 jobs over the decade, a rise of 5.2%, while residential building construction is projected to add 34,200 jobs, an increase of 3.7%. Together, the 2 segments account for about 74% of the industry’s projected net gain.
Electricians top the list of specialty trade occupations, with 65,700 new jobs projected, followed by HVAC mechanics and installers with 40,900, construction laborers with 34,800, and plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters with 27,900. First-line supervisors of trades workers are projected to add 17,300 jobs and construction managers 11,200.
The fastest percentage growth in specialty trades is expected among solar photovoltaic installers, at 35.5%, followed by occupational health and safety specialists at 22.4% and technicians at 19.7%. Those figures point to the growing role of electrical, energy, and building systems work in new homes, where the trades that install wiring, heating, cooling, and power generation are taking on a larger share of each project.
The NAHB analysis carries one important caveat for homebuilders. The specialty trade figures cover both residential and nonresidential work, and the available data cannot separate the 2, so the numbers describe the wider market that homebuilders’ subcontractors operate in rather than demand from housing alone.
Residential builders will need more carpenters, laborers, and managers
Within residential building construction, construction laborers are projected to see the largest increase, with 13,900 new jobs, followed by carpenters with 8,100 and construction managers with 5,100. First-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers are expected to add 2,800 jobs and project management specialists 1,700.
The mix suggests that site work and the management of increasingly complex projects will remain central to how homes are built over the next decade. The growth in managers and project specialists also points to the demands of coordinating more subcontractors, more building systems, and tighter schedules on each home. For builders that already struggle to hire experienced site supervisors, competition for those roles from commercial and infrastructure contractors is likely to remain a recurring cost pressure.
Data scientists show the fastest percentage growth in residential construction, at 30.0%, although the gain amounts to fewer than 100 jobs. The figure is a reminder that high growth rates on very small employment bases can overstate how much a role will change the makeup of the workforce.
Office roles and some trade helper positions face decline
Not every occupation is expected to grow. In residential construction, office clerks, secretaries and administrative assistants, and bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks are each projected to decline by 6.4%. Specialty trade contractors are expected to lose 9,200 office clerk positions, a fall of 5.2%.
Helpers of brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble setters are projected to see a 13.5% decline, the steepest among trade occupations in the analysis. Fu describes the overall picture as one of varied workforce demands, with growth concentrated in skilled trades and project management while administrative work shrinks.
For homebuilders, the projections raise a practical question about whether training programs, apprenticeships, and recruitment can keep pace with demand for electricians, HVAC installers, and carpenters. The figures are projections rather than forecasts of actual hiring, and they do not show whether enough workers will be available to fill the roles, which leaves the industry’s ability to staff that growth as the open issue for the decade ahead.
Source
NAHB Eye on Housing
